PPE3 : heating as a lever of flexibility for the electrical grid, far from cars!

With the accelerating energy transition, the stability of electrical grids becomes a major issue to avoid major incidents like the blackout recently occurred in Spain and Portugal. Deeply dissected, this phenomenon highlighted the gaps in energy resilience that our infrastructures must now face. While electric mobility is often promoted as the main lever of flexibility, the essential role of electric heating, often underestimated, stands out as a real resource for adjusting consumption in real time. Numerous studies, including those from RTE, highlight the considerable capacity of electric heating to provide crucial flexibility, significantly greater than that related to electric vehicles. Here, the intelligent management of energy consumption in homes and tertiary buildings becomes a major lever to be activated to secure and optimize the management of the national electrical grid in the coming years.

The potential of electric heating in the flexibility of the French energy network

Electric heating, in the context of the Multiannual Energy Program (PPE3), is indicative of a source of flexibility that is largely under-exploited. By 2033, forecasts indicate that approximately 55% of French homes will be equipped with an electric heating system, involving nearly 17 million households. By integrating an average power of 1.5 kW per home during winter peaks, the total potential of this source represents a formidable reservoir of 26 GW. However, taking into account a plausible equipment rate of homes with reduction and intelligent management solutions around 40%, the achievable flexible capacity would be around 10 GW only in the residential sector.

In the tertiary sector, which includes offices, businesses, and collective housing, the share of surfaces heated with electricity is also expected to grow, rising from 30% to nearly 48% of total surfaces by 2033. This represents a volume likely to generate between 3 and 5 GW of flexibility, depending on the energy efficiency of the buildings. Assuming that 40% of this area is equipped with smart thermostats and reduction systems, this leads to a target of achievable potential flexibility between 1.4 and 2 GW.

Together, these figures confirm that electric heating would offer a cumulative flexibility potential approaching 12 GW in the short term, a number that, when combining residential and tertiary, could reach 14 to 16 GW within a realistic range. These resources can be compared to the potential of only 3 to 4 GW of flexibility coming from the charging of electric vehicles for the same period. This illustrates how important it is to manage heating, through the installation of thermostats and communicative devices, as a strategic priority to ensure the adaptability and safety of the electrical network. The regulatory developments of the DPE for electric heating in 2026 underline the need to direct investments towards these effective levers.

Type of use	Share heated with electricity (projection 2033)	Total power (GW)	Target equipment rate in reduction solutions	Achievable flexibility (GW)
Residential	55% (17 million homes)	26	40%	10
Tertiary	48% of surfaces (487 million m²)	3-5	40%	1.4-2
Electric vehicles	Outlook 11.7 to 15.6 million by 2035	7-8 (global potential)	Partial	3-4

• Massive equipment in smart thermostats to optimize flexibility.
• Technical support for co-ownerships and tertiary buildings.
• Support from major players like Engie, EDF, and Schneider Electric in energy management.
• Integration into PPE3 to set ambitious and realistic objectives.
• Development of communicative infrastructures for real-time management.

Concrete examples of reduction and optimization of electric heating

Several pilot projects designed with industrial partners such as Dalkia or Veolia already demonstrate the benefits of controlled heating to ease winter peaks. For example, the modernization of heating in numerous tertiary buildings in Pierrelatte has allowed for dynamic modulation based on needs, contributing to reducing stress on the grid during peaks. Such actions, reinforced by the implementation of intelligent solutions by specialists like IziSol, show that heating management is a real, available, and profitable resource.

Why heating is a more strategic lever of flexibility than charging electric vehicles

It is important to put into perspective the weight of electric vehicle charging within the framework of energy flexibility. While electric mobility must undeniably establish itself as a response to decarbonization, its control capabilities remain limited compared to those related to heating. The charging of vehicles is often concentrated during specific evening hours, which can create demand peaks that are difficult to smooth out if the infrastructures are not perfectly equipped and coordinated.

At a time when Emel, Schneider Electric, and TotalEnergies are developing advanced technologies for smart charging, the overall potential by 2035 struggles to exceed 7-8 GW, and the flexibility that can be mobilized is about 3-4 GW due to a lack of widespread adoption of these technologies. In comparison, reduction devices on heating, thanks to a significant number of connectable electric radiators at a lower cost, offer a more accessible and effective solution for distributing daily consumption.

The very nature of heating allows for temporary reduction without major impact on comfort: smart thermostats adjust the temperature by a few degrees, a habit quickly adopted by occupants when well explained. The management of this load prevents surges and decreases the risks of power interruptions. National initiatives, with the support of RTE and Citelum for smart grids, show that it is possible to quickly promote this approach on the ground.

• Concentrated flexibility of heat points rather than a diversity of poorly synchronized charging points.
• Lower cost of installing smart thermostats compared to complex fast-charging infrastructure.
• Involvement of local actors and SMEs to broadly deploy heating management through experts like Paul Leclerc.
• Positive impact on energy bills through precise heating management (savings with thermostats).
• Interaction with the DPE to promote high-performance housing and encourage modernization (DPE reform 2026).

Criteria	Electric heating	Electric car (Charging)
Flexibility potential (GW)	12 – 16	3 – 4
Equipment cost	Low (connected thermostats)	High (charging station)
Ease of integration	High (local installers)	Medium to low (heavy infrastructure)
Comfort impacted	Minimal, fine adjustments	High potential, but depends on the vehicle
Impact on billing	Sensitive, regular savings	Variable, depends on charging strategy

The Multiannual Energy Program (PPE3) facing ground reality: towards a new energy balance

The PPE3 plays a central role in structuring the energy transition but sometimes shows a vision that is too balanced or naive between the different sources of flexibility. This stance appears disconnected from the data and perspectives provided by RTE and major operators like Enel or TotalEnergies. Between optimistic but theoretical forecasts and ground reality, it is necessary to adjust priorities and means to ensure better resilience.

To constitute a more robust electrical network, the PPE3 must massively encourage the deployment of reduction solutions in electric heating, particularly in residential and tertiary settings, by proposing:

• Targeted aids such as the devices observed in the Coup de Pouce Chauffage to support energy modernization.
• A clear regulatory framework reinforcing the role of smart thermostats and the rise of communicative buildings.
• A strengthened coordination between network managers, industrial actors, and ground participants – from experienced plumbers to energy suppliers.
• A commitment from local authorities through awareness-raising programs and installation of suitable technologies, such as Lunéville and its renovated district heating.
• The integration of innovative solutions proposed by leaders like Schneider Electric or Veolia to adapt the grid to future uses.

In this context, networks must rely on efficient tools capable of regulating domestic consumption in real time, while maintaining optimal comfort. Expert professional intervention, such as that of Paul Leclerc, ensures accurate diagnostics and rigorous follow-up during the deployment of these technologies.

Action point	PPE3 objectives	Ground reality (RTE and actors)	Recommended measures
Heating flexibility	Equal to electric mobility	80% of electrical potential	Enhance reduction solutions
Electric mobility flexibility	High potential	20% of collective potential	Develop smart charging
Government actions	General incentive	Targeted programs by area	Financial aids and training

Concrete advantages for individuals and network managers to opt for flexible heating

Integrating heating flexibility into everyday energy management brings numerous benefits, both for users and for networks. For individuals, equipping smart thermostats allows:

• A notable reduction in energy bills through peak reduction and optimized management (see here the savings tips).
• Personalized comfort thanks to intuitive programming and fine regulation of temperatures according to occupants’ schedules.
• An active participation in the energy transition, supporting decarbonization and emission reductions.
• A reliable technical support ensured by experienced professionals, guaranteeing installation in compliance with standards (material quality, installation seal).
• Facilitated access to financial aids offered by organizations such as TotalEnergies or Engie in partnership with public authorities.

For network managers, this lever offers:

• An effective rebalancing of consumption allowing to reduce peaks and ensure network stability in case of temporary constraints.
• A better integration of renewable energies through charge management, in harmony with fluctuating solar or wind production.
• A strengthened possibility to extend coverage without engaging costly investments in heavy networks, notably thanks to innovative technologies from Citelum.

Beneficiaries	Key advantages	Concrete examples
Individuals	Bill reduction, comfort, financial aids	Modernization of district heating in Lunéville
Network managers	Stability, renewable integration, investment savings	Projects in partnership with RTE and Veolia

A wider adoption could help avoid incidents like the recent blackout, while promoting a better quality of service. The synergy between public and private actors – EDF, Enel, Dalkia, as well as technicians and plumbers like Paul Leclerc – remains essential for sustainably deploying these solutions.